Science

What a Piece of Work is a Man…

/ Joe Broadmeadow / Leave a comment

The human capacity for self-delusion knows no bounds. We believe ourselves to be intelligent, rational beings yet are willing to embrace, without evidence or factual data, rumors, belief systems, urban legends, paranormal incidents, or even claims of near-death experience as true simply because we cannot, will not, or choose not to seek a more mundane or rational explanation.

Religion is the biggie. More than four thousand gods have been proclaimed throughout history, and most of the faithful gleefully ridicule all but one or two latest versions as false. While religion is probably just the most commonly experienced self delusion, there are myriad others.

Entire seasons of television shows are devoted to “ghost hunters” who, despite thousands and thousands of hours of low-light filming, faux eerie scenes of “spooky” noises, and claims of gusts of frigid air warning the “Paranormal investigators” away, have never managed to capture one incontrovertible frame of an ethereal being.

“Para” being the important part of the investigator appellation with normal as merely ironic hyperbole.

Big Foot, the Abominable Snowman, Swamp Man, Sasquatch and a hundred other named creatures allegedly roam our woods and mountains, yet not even one good picture, let alone a single strand of fur, lump of feces, or other substance we could independently analyze, has ever been produced or recovered.

The general cell phone user can take an image of the moon with remarkable clarity, yet we can’t get a picture of a bipedal apelike creature in our increasingly shrinking world or, the most popular urban legend, a quality video of an Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon (UAP), formerly Unidentified Flying Object (UFO), other than something that looks like a picture from a newspaper left in the rain or a an accidental video shot while driving on a bumpy road

Three billion cellphones in the world, not one live streaming event or image of an alien kidnapping, landing of a alien spacecraft, Big Foot roaming the Appalachian Trail, or the Abominable Snowman roaming the Himalayas.

Not one.

And the truly remarkable disconnect is the belief that the US government, which couldn’t prevent the disclosure of our most critical and deadly secrets, the process for producing atomic and nuclear weapons, has somehow managed to capture and co-opt alien beings and technology and kept this from the American public.

Not likely.

The must keep the maintenance staff at Groom Lake, aka Area 51, under lock and key until they die.

Despite all the entertainment media references, spurious books, and supposed “top secret” revelations to the contrary, there is no Presidential Book of Secrets. Because if there were do you think for one moment our current…ah, never mind, you know exactly where I was going with this.

Shakespeare had Hamlet say, “What a piece of work is a man…” about the character of humans. Indeed, we are a unique sort of species in the universe. Unique in the sense of embracing these self-delusions not unique in any special way compared to the myriad of others.

Being a big fan of the wisdom of the Bard, his words are infinitely better than mine is describing the human condition.

“I will tell you why; so shall my anticipation prevent your discovery, and your secrecy to the King and queene: moult no feather. I have of late, (but wherefore I know not) lost all my mirth, forgone all custom of exercises; and indeed, it goes so heavily with my disposition; that this goodly frame the earth, seems to me a sterile promontory; this most excellent canopy the air, look you, this brave o’er hanging firmament, this majestical roof, fretted with golden fire: why, it appeareth no other thing to me, than a foul and pestilent congregation of vapours. What a piece of work is a man, How noble in reason, how infinite in faculty, In form and moving how express and admirable, In action how like an Angel, In apprehension how like a god, The beauty of the world, The paragon of animals. And yet to me, what is this quintessence of dust? Man delights not me; no, nor Woman neither; though by your smiling you seem to say so.” Hamlet Act 2, Scene 2

We all enjoy some harmless delusions, Santa Claus and the concept of a (non-religious) Christmas Spirit being one example. Star Wars, Lord of the Rings, and other wonders of special effects being another. No issue in that mindless diversion from daily toils.

The others may be a bit more dangerous when we convince ourselves they are real because to do so we have to discard healthy skepticism and curiosity.

The important part of the term Unexplained Aerial Phenomenon is “Unexplained.” Unexplained does not mean “of alien origin.” It means we cannot currently explain it. Could it be of alien origin? Of course. But what is more likely? Are these events evidence that an advanced race of sentient beings from another star system or galaxy have found a way around the well-established limits of the physics of superluminal (Faster than Light) travel OR is it some sort of hardware or software failure within a military surveillance system or erroneous interpretation of something seen by a person?

It is just as likely that the artificial intelligence we are incorporating into our military surveillance systems is giving us what we seem to want. It is built to detect targets, it finds us a target by inventing one. This is not so far fetched. There is research of such “learned” behavior in self-driving cars becoming more aggressive. (See story here)

Here’s a thought, next time aliens take you aboard their spacecraft, while they are focusing on probing an orifice requiring you to face the other way, try grabbing something from the ship. Act like you’re just holding on and bracing for impact. Anything of alien origin will do. Then, when you can sit down again, post a picture online (of the object, not the focus of the probe) and offer to have others examine it for its authenticity.

Now that would be something to believe in rather than just a claim of kidnapping by an advanced civilization of extraterrestrial intergalactic proctologists.

Close Encounters of the Third Kind

Great to the nTH power Uncle Tiktaalik

/ Joe Broadmeadow / Leave a comment

In 2006, in the cold Arctic north, in an area on Ellesmere Island in Nunavut, Canada, the fossilized remains of our great, great, great to the nth degree uncle Tiktaalik were discovered. The name, Tiktaalik, is a Inuktitut word meaning “large freshwater fish.” The fossil was estimated at 375 million years old.

What this fossil did was fill in one of the “missing links” in the fossil record between amphibians and the tetrapod (four-legged animals.) The skeleton of the fish bore the unmistakable evidence of early formation of shoulder and wrist structure.

One of the scientists involved in the discovery, Jennifer A. Clack, a Cambridge University expert on tetrapod evolution, said of Tiktaalik, “It’s one of those things you can point to and say, ‘I told you this would exist,’ and there it is.”

Just as evolution described it would exist, it did. Uncle Tiktaalik is just one example. It filled a gap previously occupied by the intelligent designer fallacy, the god of the gaps.

The (inane) argument against evolution, the promotion of the teleological argument for the existence of god, aka intelligent design, is gaining ground in public education. It is the opening round of the dumbing down of America.

Proponents assume both are on equal footing and should be “taught” in school. Nothing could be more detrimental to education than teaching students unquestioning acceptance of information without proof.

It is not teaching, it is indoctrination. Science admits it cannot explain everything, but continues to seek the answers. Religion claims you can’t explain it so it must be god and no further inquiry is necessary.

The contradiction arises in what one considers teaching. In teaching science, one details not just the result or most comprehensive theory (in the scientific sense) but the process and the emphasis on skepticism. Science is based on the ability of independent verification, or falsification, of the conclusions. Nothing more so than the unquestionable evidence for evolution.

Teaching Intelligent design, the teleological argument for the existence of god, is the educational equivalent of “Because I said so…” As are most religious instructions. No fundamental understanding of the process is necessary. Understanding is an anathema to faith. As a matter of fact, I would argue the teaching of Intelligent Design specifically prohibits and discourages any questioning of the logic (or lack thereof) behind the contention and demands it be accepted.

It is similar to the argument for the god of the gaps. where “god” fills the gaps in scientific knowledge. This argument fails, of course, with each new scientific advance. And, to demonstrate the inconsistency of these arguments for existence of a supreme being, whenever science fills in one of these gaps, a new interpretation of Biblical verse is proposed, i.e. the Bible knew this all along.

Here’s one example.

“The idea is that as scientific research progresses, and an increasing number of phenomena are explained naturalistically, the role of God diminishes accordingly. The major criticism commonly states that invoking supernatural explanations should decrease in plausibility over time, as the domain of knowledge previously explained by God is decreasing.
However, with modern advances in science and technology, the tables have been literally turned. With the advent of electron scanning microscopes, we have been able to observe the intricate workings of the cell for the first time. What had originally and simplistically been thought to be nothing more than a “blob” of protoplasm is now seen to be far more complex and information-packed than had ever been conceived of previously…
…In reality, a belief in God can be derived by means of an objective assessment, rather than the subjective conjecture that may have been the case millennia ago. But many people simply deny what is obvious to them. The Bible addresses those very people: “The wrath of God is being revealed from heaven against all the godlessness and wickedness of men who suppress the truth by their wickedness, since what may be known about God is plain to them, because God has made it plain to them. For since the creation of the world God’s invisible qualities—his eternal power and divine nature—have been clearly seen, being understood from what has been made, so that men are without excuse” (Romans 1:18-20). The God-of-the-gaps argument is an example of “suppressing the truth” because it relegates God to a “backup” explanation for those things which cannot yet be explained by natural phenomena. This leads some to the faulty conclusion that God is not the omnipotent, omnipresent, absolute Being of whom Scripture testifies.
…There is much for which the natural sciences simply cannot provide an explanation, such as the origin of the time/space/matter continuum and the fine-tuning thereof; the origin and subsequent development of life itself; and the origin of the complex and specified information systems inherent in all living things, which cannot (nor ever will be) explained by natural means. Thus one cannot rationally divorce the supernatural from the observed universe, proving once again that “in the beginning God created the heavens and the earth” (Genesis 1:1).” https://www.gotquestions.org/God-of-the-gaps.html

They apparently can’t even recognize the inconsistency in their own writing. “God’s invisible qualities—his eternal power and divine nature—have been clearly seen.” Ah, if they are invisible how can they be seen? Or that the fine-tuning argument has long been overcome by evidence. Nor can they get past the “uncaused cause, the unmoved mover, or the who created god” issue.

Nothing could be more detrimental to education than teaching students unquestioning acceptance of information without proof.

Joe Broadmeadow

This invasion of public secular education by the religious evangelicals was foretold by one of the most preeminent conservative Republicans, Barry Goldwater, and called out for what it was, a usurping and diminishing of public education, secular government, and the separation of church and state.

“Mark my word, if and when these preachers get control of the [Republican] party, and they’re sure trying to do so, it’s going to be a terrible damn problem. Frankly, these people frighten me. Politics and governing demand compromise. But these Christians believe they are acting in the name of God, so they can’t and won’t compromise. I know, I’ve tried to deal with them.” Barry Goldwater.

If evangelicals get full control of public education, we are in serious trouble. There would be blind acceptance of this type of nonsense, the devil in the smoke of 9/11. Another mythological creature “seen” by the hysterical faithful to justify their faith.

https://nymag.com/news/9-11/10th-anniversary/satans-face/

Something that can easily be explained by the behavior of heat and gasses and a powerful example of how our evolution made pattern recognition a key to survival. Better to think what you see is a danger, i.e. a lion, a snake, etc. than to ignore it because of uncertainty.

Given the opportunity, evangelicals would replace the periodic table with the decalogue, a map of the solar system with an earth-centered universe, and replace teachers who encourage students to question everything with parrots of the irrational who teach blind acceptance.

Exploring Deep Space: The Dance of Light and Time

/ Joe Broadmeadow / Leave a comment

Whenever the weather permits, which around here is quite infrequent, I try to take advantage and get some photos of Deep Space Objects (DSO) or the planets. One of the aspects I miss from Arizona was in the three years we were there, we might have had three nights where the weather prohibited being outside. But it is what it is.

As the weather now cools, one of the bonuses of our new location is a large gas fire pit. This offers two benefits. First, it keeps me warm while the cameras gather the light from millions of light-years away, and second, it offers a view of something humans have gazed at for eons, the plasma flame, to consider things.

Hidden within the flame is the essence of the universe.

Thus, I can be relatively comfortable while I wait to gather the images that produce these finished pictures.

It struck me that the fuel burning to produce the flame likely derived from the remains of dinosaurs that were alive when the light from some of these stars and objects first began their journey to end up captured by my camera.

I was literally enjoying both the beginning moment and end times of this light.

NGC 4631

This image of NGC 4631, taken over 50 minutes of 10-second exposures, shows the light from that galaxy that left around 50 million years ago during the Eocene epoch. This was when many of the predecessors of modern mammals thrived.

It was likely that I was converting the atoms of carbon and hydrogen, formed in the nuclear furnace of the first stars, that once were inside the cells of living creatures, alive when the light from this galaxy first left the system, and sending it back out into the universe as heat.

Or at least sending it out after it kept me warm.

Quite frankly, sitting under the stars renews my faith in the future. When one considers all the cataclysmic events that had to come together for the atoms within all of us to travel the immense distances they did and evolve into the beings we have all become, it would seem nature has better things in store for us than just some of the nonsense we seem to focus on daily.

We should all take a moment, on a dark, cloudless night, to look up at the stars and remember that is where we all came from and where we will all return.

Remember, man, that thou art dust and unto dust thou shalt return. Momento mori.

Un-Conscientious Objections

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The wisdom of President Biden’s push to encourage/demand vaccinations for Americans will be debated in the media for weeks, but they likely will miss the point. Instead of confronting the real threat to the health and well-being of the nation, they will focus on the zero-sum nature of the politics rather than the critical need for firm action. I, for one, think the President has seized a historical moment and implemented a policy he believes necessary despite the political risks. A decision which future historians will see as both necessary and courageous.

Such courage and commitment are refreshing. Something that has been sorely lacking in both the office of the Presidency and the halls of Congress, on both sides of the aisle.

Why have we reached this point? Selfishness and lack of empathetic reciprocity.

With the recent 20th anniversary of 9/11, we are reminded of how we came together as a nation to confront the crisis. Yet, on further analysis, it was just 1% of the population and their families who bore the burden for the rest of us. Even then-President Bush told Americans to go shopping. We were a nation at war, but it was something we watched on TV. No one was planting victory gardens or saving cans for the war effort.

And so the situation in which we find ourselves in the pandemic crisis should come as no surprise.

When the burden of facing the issue affects all Americans, suddenly, it is too much to ask for a significant number of us. It is easy to wave flags, sing God Bless America, and send someone else’s son or daughter off to war. Then crack open a beer and toast the video of some JDAM bomb explosion in a cave in a country many couldn’t find on a map. But it is entirely different when we face the outrageous demand to get vaccinated and wear a mask.

How dare the government take away my rights to be selfish.

The country faces a crisis. In many ways, it is a crisis of our own making. For years, we have reduced the emphasis on basic science literacy at the expense of our overall well-being. By releasing into society high school graduates with minimal understanding of science and the efficacy of standard medical treatments such as vaccines and the method in which communicable diseases spread, we’ve sown the seeds of our own demise.

When one has little fundamental understanding of science, one is vulnerable to the myths and agenda-driven nonsense such as the anti-vax movement.

When you combine scientific ignorance with the widespread selfishness permeating society in the guise of demand for rights, we would inevitably be the vehicle of our own demise. Then you have those who abuse the necessary, but rare, exemptions such as medical conditions and religious objections, and we have a recipe for disaster.

In a recent hearing on a bill to remove Massachusetts’ religious exemption, a witness said that she used the religious exemption,

“Not because it goes against my religion, but because I do not believe that it is necessary to put additional chemicals into my child’s body for an illness that she would fully recover from. You are proposing to take away my right as a parent, and for what? To protect other people?” https://www.wgbh.org/news/politics/2021/07/12/standardizing-mass-school-vaccine-rules-triggers-vocal-opposition

https://blog.petrieflom.law.harvard.edu/2021/07/16/religious-exemptions-to-vaccines-and-the-anti-vax-movement/

None of the major religions have doctrinal objections to vaccinations. Almost all acknowledge the benefit to society of such medical practices. Yet, the abuse continues, placing society at risk.

If a religious organization demanded the separation of students in public education by sex, no one would take such a demand seriously. So why would we allow objections which place others at risk?

If you choose not to be vaccinated, you accept that you may be banned from public transportation, gatherings, or any other place where the public gathers. Although you may have the right to place yourself and your family at risk, you do not have the right to do that to others.

There is a well-articulated study of the abuse of religious exemptions well worth the read.

Dorit Rubinstein Reiss, Thou Shalt Not Take the Name of the Lord Thy God in Vain: Use and Abuse of Religious Exemptions from School Immunization Requirements, 65 Hastings L.J. 1551 (2014).
Available at: https://repository.uchastings.edu/hastings_law_journal/vol65/iss6/5

What can we do about false claims of religious objections? Not much. But it reflects the increasingly selfish nature of many in our society where rights trump responsibilities, and what may hurt others doesn’t matter as long as an individual’s claim to a right to create the risk is preserved.

During the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the US suffered 7,036 killed in action. In World War II, the US suffered 407,300 killed in action with the same number of families paying the ultimate price.

So far, Covid has killed 677,988 Americans. 677,988 dead from a condition we can now control and prevent with a high degree of success. Almost as many Amerians have died from Covid as have died in all the wars we fought for our freedoms. Somehow, I don’t think all those who died in battle did so so Americans could commit suicide. What we have in this country is a collection of UN-Conscientious Objectors refusing to join the battle.

It would be a mistake to underestimate the level of selfishness overrunning society and the descent into willful ignorance. Thus, while we have a reasonable expectation of being free from the onerous demands of the government, that expectation must be measured against the overall risk to society.

It’s time we come together once again to face this burden, not shirk it out of selfishness.

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JEBWizard Publishing (www.jebwizardpublishing.com) is a hybrid publishing company focusing on new and emerging authors. We offer a full range of customized publishing services.

Everyone has a story to tell, let us help you share it with the world. We turn publishing dreams into a reality. For more information and manuscript submission guidelines contact us at info@jebwizardpublishing.com or 401-533-3988.

A (Garbled) Message from the Stars

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“Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity.  And I’m not so sure about the universe.” 

Albert Einstein

Twenty-nine percent of Americans believe in Astrology which is close to the number who also believe in Creationism (Forty percent). All of which may explain quite a bit of the current conditions in the country.

That people believe in a Pseudo-science (astrology) and ignore the overwhelming evidence of Evolution to embrace Creationism underscores the growing anti-intellectual phenomenon plaquing the US.

I find the astrology aspect particularly amusing. Here’s a sample of astrological prognostications for my “sign” Leo for June 16, 2021.  These are just a few of the thousands of sites that offer such pabulum. Some put “for entertainment purposes only”  as a disclaimer, but they don’t really mean it as demonstrated by the mini font.

“Withdrawing into your burrow isn’t always easy for a fire sign like yourself. But, you’re heavily meditated and thriving in your own company. This is what having your third eye lit looks and feels like, Leo! On your cards today: looking at the stars and exploring the mysteries of what lies beyond. If there is a teacher, guru or practitioner you connect with deeply, now is the time to imbibe their teachings in a way that feels authentic to you.”

https://www.vogue.in/horoscope/collection/daily-horoscope-today-16-06-2021-zodiac-signs/

“Leo sign people are likely to strengthen their relationship with their boss. Situations will improve further in the workplace. A wish may get fulfilled today. Those who are working in the government sector will get even better results today. Your familial life will remain good. Your health will remain fine. You are likely to make monetary gains.” 

https://www.pinkvilla.com/lifestyle/people/horoscope-today-june-16-2021-check-your-daily-astrology-prediction-zodiac-sign-leo-libra-scorpio-777614

“You are blessed by the moon. Happiness may be around you, it can help you to enjoy your day to day work. Your vital power may help you to take tough decisions, which will increase your profits in the near future.”

https://www.timesnownews.com/astrology/article/horoscope-today-june-16-2021-taurus-leo-virgo-check-out-daily-astrology-prediction-for-all-zodiac-signs/771186

“The moon in Virgo activates the financial sector of your chart today, encouraging you to get your budget organized and think about how to create more abundance and security in your life. You’re ready to make exciting changes in your career as the moon mingles with Uranus!“

https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvzvq8/daily-horoscope-june-16-2021

So, ignoring for the moment the complexities of planetary mechanics, the phenomenon of the procession of the equinoxes (a 26000-year orbit of the earth’s axis, altering the relative position of the earth/sun alignment and thus placing the Sun during the Spring equinox this year in the “House of Pisces” when in the year 4600 BCE the Sun was in Capricorn,) and the realities of the continuous and accelerating expansion of the universe, what possesses people to embrace such nonsense?

Such complexities matter little when people want to believe something despite all the evidence to the contrary—things like vaccines causing autism, another well debunked fallacy.

I cannot decide which of these horoscopes to embrace, and I worry about the last one from Vice.com.  I am fairly certain having the moon mingling with Uranus might be an unpleasant experience and is likely still illegal in a few states.

Besides, my psychic advisor told me I should ignore such things while my aura was in a weakened state.

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JEBWizard Publishing (www.jebwizardpublishing.com) is a hybrid publishing company focusing on new and emerging authors. We offer a full range of customized publishing services.

Everyone has a story to tell, let us help you share it with the world. We turn publishing dreams into a reality. For more information and manuscript submission guidelines contact us at info@jebwizardpublishing.com or 401-533-3988.

Judgement Calls

/ Joe Broadmeadow / Leave a comment

“What’s the use of having developed a science well enough to make predictions if, in the end, all we’re willing to do is stand around and wait for them to come true?”

F. Sherwood Rowland

Despite what many might believe, life is a series of judgement calls. We often face a plethora of options with little or no clear guidance on what path to follow.

As we first venture out on our own to face these choices, a lack of experience compounds the problem or youthful exuberance—what some might see as youthful indiscretions—makes us vulnerable to the verities of fate. Whether there is such a thing as fate or pre-destination doesn’t really matter.

Whether we make choices or fate made the choices for us, the ramifications still take effect. I, for one, believe in free will. As we gain experience, the value of making considered judgement calls becomes all the more clear.

The critical importance of judgement calls come into sharp focus when we face the decision about following the guidelines as we re-emerge from under the shadow of COVID-19.

Science offers the best basis to weigh our options. Emotions, instinct, and gut feelings, while useful, can sometimes be dangerous when making decisions that may affect the lives of others. Our emotional need for stability, consistency, and flexibility in our daily lives comes with a caution label.

Sometimes what we desire the most is that which we need the least.

Science tells us this virus is dangerous, easily spread, and highly contagious. Those who suffer the most severe—sometimes fatal—symptoms cross the spectrum of humans. There is no “common” victim. Treatment protocols, such as they are, are by necessity tailored to the individual patient. Doctors and nurses are making some of the most significant judgement calls because there is no widely accepted treatment protocol, although we are gaining knowledge with each passing day.

Until we develop a vaccine, and until our collective experience provides us with a roadmap to the most successful treatment protocols, this virus poses an imminent and deadly threat.  One that is not going away because we grow tired of the inconvenience, see bogeyman hands in the restrictions, or wish it to be so.

The science on the progression of the virus is clearer than it was several months ago. The effectiveness of social distancing, as debilitating on our daily lives as it has been, seems to have slowed—but not stopped—the spread of the virus.

Yet many seem to ignore the facts before us.

They will ignore the predictions based on deeply considered analysis of the evidence we have before us—not guarantees, not certainties— for no better reason than a gut feeling. Science suggests keeping these controls in place, while we relax them in a managed way, as the best course.

We should make that an elemental part of our judgement calls.

The premise is simple. Control the spread, minimize the drain on hospitals, until we develop a vaccine. Virus have always affected humans. Evolution has always changed viruses. Another will mutate and replace this one. It is using the best tools we have to face the threat that will make a difference, not focusing on the inconvenience.

And when this passes we need redouble our efforts at preparing for the next one. This is a judgement call based on facts and experience not emotions, frustrations, and irrationality.

People flood social media with memes and numbers and arguments on both sides of the issue, yet these forums are almost always emotion-based and agenda driven. And those who would follow medical advice from such forums should seriously question their own judgement.

Those who see visions of a new Black Death scourging the world want to lock themselves away until they can be guaranteed of their survival.

Those who see the hands of a governmental conspiracy, controlled by the all-powerful, all-knowing, all-seeing, yet invisible deep-state, want to throw open the doors, toss caution and rationality to the wind, and go back to “normal” without so much as any acknowledgment of the real and deadly threat.

Why some who protest against these closures feel the need to bear arms is beyond me. It makes them seem more unstable and less rational. And those who cower in their homes out of an irrational belief they can forever avoid exposure to viral pathogens are equally delusional.

We face significant choices over the next few months. Many of those personal decisions will be judgement calls; follow guidelines, wear a mask, keep practicing social distancing. While we all may live our lives, and we should not passively accept government imposed limitations, keep in mind our sense of human decency can guide us.

I, for one, will wear a mask until the science says it is safe not to. I will limit my exposure to others and maintain a social distance. I will do these things not just to protect myself and my family, but to protect everyone.

I do not want to spread the virus to anyone else even if I have no fear of catching it myself. I do not want to cause the death of any other human, even if I did not know I did.

Why would anyone want to bear the thought of making such a poor judgement call?

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Virion: Is Global Warming Sending Us A Message?

/ Joe Broadmeadow / Leave a comment

Could it be the melting of the frozen Arctic Tundra is the source of COVID-19? Has climate change awakened a new plague on mankind?

In 1967 two scientists, Syukuro Manabe and Richard Wetherald, released a report that reverberates to this day. And like most evidence-based reporting perceived to impact business or economics in a negative way, it was ignored, demeaned, discredited, and challenged. Ultimately, more research confirmed the evidence, and corroborated the initial report. Leading to its wide acceptance.

They did not set out to establish the existence of global warming and anthropomorphic climate change. Manabe and Wetherald posed a question—what effect does the increase of Co2 have on the atmosphere—and followed the evidence. Interestingly enough, using mostly calculations on paper lacking access to sophisticated computers, they predicted a 2.36-degree rise in atmospheric temperature over fifty years.

Measurements taken in 2017, the fiftieth anniversary of their prediction, measured the actual rise at 2.57 degrees. The science predicting the rise was remarkably accurate and borne out by the verifiable numbers.

(Manabe, S. and Wetherald, R.T., 1967. Thermal equilibrium of the atmosphere with a given distribution of relative humidity. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences) and https://www.carbonbrief.org/prof-john-mitchell-how-a-1967-study-greatly-influenced-climate-change-science

In Cosmos |Possible Worlds| by Ann Druyan, she points out that, based on this initial report,

“The larger community of climate scientists predicted these impacts of climate change. Heightened flooding of coastal cities, check. The mass death of coral reefs by ocean warming, check. The increase in intensity of catastrophic storms, check. Lethal heatwaves, droughts, and runaway wildfires of unprecedented magnitude, check. The scientists warned us. The corporations with vested interests in the fossil fuel industry and the governments they supported acted just like the tobacco companies. They pretended the science was unsettled and stalled for precious years.”

Druyan points out an even more ominous consequence of our failure to heed the evidence provided by science.

“An outbreak may begin when a virion, a mega-virus, dormant for over 100,000 years, is awakened as the permafrost of the Arctic melts away.”

Since the consensus—despite the spin by those with a political agenda to make this some intentional plot by China to obfuscate incompetence within the administration—is that this virus is neither man-made or genetically modified, it is a naturally occurring phenomenon.

And likely to occur again.

So, could it be an ancient virion* — the complete, infective form of a virus outside a host cell, with a core of RNA or DNA and a capsid—long dormant in the once frozen permafrost of the Arctic, now rises from a cryogenic slumber to ravage the world with a new virus?

We have re-embraced the benefits of science. We look to scientists and researchers for a vaccine to eliminate the threat of COVID-19. Shouldn’t we be willing to heed the warnings long available to us to prepare for what will inevitably be the next challenge facing the world?

Suppose the virus is “man-made,” not by our intent but by our willful ignorance?

*https://www.differencebetween.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Difference-Between-Virus-and-Virion.pdf

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Follow this blog for upcoming information on all new book releases. And please share this with readers everywhere. All comments are welcome. Or if you would like write a piece to be posted on my blog please send me a message.

Signup here for my email list for information on all upcoming releases, book signings, and media appearances.

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“Hic incipit pestis.” *

/ Joe Broadmeadow / 2 Comments

*”Here begins the plague” is written in the register next to the entry for Oliver Gunne’s burial on June 11, 1564 one of the first victims of the plague that ravaged Europe back when the “treatment” for such illnesses was praying or trying to exorcise demons. We seem to be reverting to such fear based reactions to a natural, if troubling, evolutionary process of viral mutation.

As one of our greatest Presidents once said, “We have nothing to fear but fear itself” (Franklin D. Roosevelt)

Before we hunt and burn witches once someone suggests they bear responsibility for this Corona Virus Panic, it may be time for a deep breath. (And dispense with the paper masks, one they get wet from your breath all they stop is bad breath, and not very well.)  

It is this panicked fear of a naturally reoccurring phenomenon which grips this country and the world that is the genuine danger and risk.  While any death from what will soon be (although not in 2 or 3 months as someone suggested) a treatable and preventable viral infection is tragic, yet it’s the way the world works.

We (meaning the world) have faced the Black Death, Spanish Flu, a host of childhood diseases, AIDS, MRSA, Ebola et. al., once almost always fatal, and have found treatments or preventative measures to mitigate them. We did it through scientifically valid research and development.

We have child-guard caps on medication because someone died. We have seals on bottles because some put poison in a pain killer and someone died. We have seat belts in cars because someone died.  We learn from experience and use science and reasoning to deal with these issues.  Panic accomplishes nothing but a proliferation of ignorance.

It is the fundamental lack of basic science which troubles me the most. The anti-vaxxers with their pseudo-science already proven not just wrong but dangerous making claims without the slightest bit of evidence.

And people listen.

It is people not having a fundamental understanding of how viral pathogens are transmitted running around stockpiling disinfectant hoping to stave off which for most will amount to two sick days.

Yet people panic.

Now this is not to minimize the risk to those with compromised immunity or breathing difficulties. But these same risk factors apply to the flu which mutates every year (responding to the vaccines and evolving as life always has) and returning in a new variation.

As reported by the CDC in their 2019-2020 Flu Season overview, 280,000 to 500,000 flu hospitalizations and 16,000 to 41,000 flu deaths this year to date.

The flu, which in most cases is preventable by well-established vaccines, is still expected to kill between 260,000 and 350,000 people worldwide with 36,000 deaths in the US.

And this happens EVERY YEAR.

Now in case there is any doubt in anyone’s mind, I am not a fan of the President.  But in his news conference he did say something that is accurate, we should leave politics out of this. Whether Mr. Trump and others will– Democrats bear responsibility here also–is doubtful, but it is necessary if for no other reason than to mitigate the panic all out of proportion to the risk.

The actual culprit here is the media. Driven by the simple-minded attention-deficit tweet-addicted society we live in, the media resorts to stark headlines and “Breaking” News teasers to capture the infrequent moments of lucidity among many of our fellow citizens.

It forces them to compete with such major news as what Bachelorette picked which idiotic contestant or which Naked and Alone competitor had the most ant bites on their ass. And don’t even get me started on “My 600-pound life.”

The media are the modern equivalent of the boy who cried wolf or Chicken Little and the sky is falling. Their credibility, damaged by the constant need for shock and awe, discounted when they try to report actual news requiring some thought and consideration so the public, enamored of the hype and nonsense, doesn’t miss it.

Sadly, most of the time they do.

Mr. Trump and his administration, when faced with a genuine opportunity to show calm and deliberate leadership, booted it. Their intentional closure of the office designated to plan and prepare for this exact situation, further evidence of their disdain for science and expert advice, is a stain on an already tarnished Presidency. And their inaction followed by irrational overreaction will cause irreparable economic harm all out of proportion to the risk.

And people will still get the virus.

The media is as guilty as the President.  In its usual fervor for ratings, they further exasperated the situation with their hyperbole and drowned out the few voices of reasons—the doctors and scientists of the CDC and WHO — as they cautioned a reasonable reaction to a predictable situation.

Just for a bit of enlightenment in an age of darkness, here as some interesting statistics on the ways to die.

Oportet memento mori (Remember you must die)

Latin saying
Lifetime odds of death for selected causes, United States, 2017
Cause of DeathOdds of Dying
Heart Disease1 in 6
Cancer1 in 7
Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease1 in 27
Suicide1 in 88
Opioid overdose1 in 96
Motor Vehicle Crash1 in 103
Fall1 in 114
Gun Assault1 in 285
Pedestrian Incident1 in 556
Motorcyclist1 in 858
Drowning1 in 1,117
Fire or Smoke1 in 1,474
Choking on Food1 in 2,696
Bicyclist1 in 4,047
Accidental Gun Discharge1 in 8,527
Sunstroke1 in 8,912
Electrocution, Radiation, Extreme Temperatures and Pressure1 in 15,638
Sharp objects1 in 28,000
Cataclysmic Storm1 in 31,394
Hot surfaces and substances1 in 46,045
Hornet, wasp and bee stings1 in 46,562
Dog attack1 in 115,111
Passenger on an airplane1 in 188,364
Lightning1 in 218,106
Railway passenger1 in 243,765

“Remember man that thou art dust…”

Author unknown