An easily transmissible novel respiratory pathogen that kills or incapacitates more than one percent of its victims is among the most disruptive events possible.
The National Intelligence Council—something I would bet most people have never heard of—is one of those rarest of governmental entities. Avoiding the taint of political bent of any sort—probably because it is so obscure—it functions as a center for long-term strategic analysis. Every four years, it produces a report projecting various potential scenarios for the future.
Their reports are, sadly, read by few people; a consequence of our ADHD-addled society lacking any ability to read and digest anything more than a grammar-deficient, emoji-laden posting about nonsense.
While the report cautions the dangers of trying to “predict” the future (something only Long Island Mediums and their ilk can do with any certainty), the council’s analysis has produced some startlingly accurate scenarios.
One of which we are now experiencing with COVID-19.
In the 2012 report, the council compiled a list of “black swans”—game-changing events that could impact the world. One of those scenarios was this.
“Severe Pandemic No one can predict which pathogen will be the next to start spreading to humans, or when or where such a development will occur. An easily transmissible novel respiratory pathogen that kills or incapacitates more than one percent of its victims is among the most disruptive events possible. Such an outbreak could result in millions of people suffering and dying in every corner of the world in less than six months.” Global Trends 2030 Pg. XI https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/GlobalTrends_2030.pdf (emphasis mine)
Why does this matter? Because this report, and information analysis by the Obama administration, led to the creation of a government entity to plan and prepare for just such a scenario.
They created a plan for subsequent administrations to build on (and rely on) in a pandemic. (https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6819268/Pandemic-Playbook.pdf)
What they didn’t expect was their administration would be followed by one who was hellbent on reinventing the wheel and dismissing anything that came before them. (As a side note, they will have the new design for the wheel right after they finish building the wall.)
All of this leads up to the main point here, the critical nature of the upcoming election. We have an administration characterized by anti-science bias, fundamental disdain for critical analysis, inability to grasp complex geopolitical matters, and driven by pettiness and ego.
And this is what we might face in the years to come.
(From the latest version of the Council’s report)
“Uncertainty about the United States, an inward-looking West, and erosion of norms for conflict prevention and human rights will encourage China and Russia to check US influence. In doing so, their “gray zone” aggression and diverse forms of disruption will stay below the threshold of hot war but bring profound risks of miscalculation. Overconfidence that material strength can manage escalation will increase the risks of interstate conflict to levels not seen since the Cold War. Even if hot war is avoided, the current pattern of “international cooperation where we can get it”—such as on climate change—masks significant differences in values and interests among states and does little to curb assertions of dominance within regions. These trends are leading to a spheres of influence world.”
One of the most frightening realities is the stockpile of nuclear weapons in the world and the potential for proliferation of such technology to unstable theocracies and apocalyptic embracing non-state actors. Absent a rational and intelligence-driven administration, our ability to mitigate such risks is crippled.
There are almost 14000 nuclear warheads dispersed among the eight or nine known nuclear nations. The US and Russia hold ninety-one percent. While terrifying, this is a dramatic decrease from the mid-20th century peak of almost seventy thousand. These decreases resulted from negotiation strategies—a policy abandoned by this administration and replaced by belligerence, nationalism, and increased leaning toward isolationism.
Since the days the Soviet Union became the second nuclear power and the replacement of the first atomic weapons with the even more powerful thermonuclear ones—a weapon that is detonated by an atomic explosion—we have avoided nuclear war through a policy of MAD, Mutually Assured Destruction.
We prevented all-out war by guaranteeing everybody loses. MADness indeed, but effective.
Now, the proliferation of such technology—a characteristic of technology is the newest inventions become easier to produce and distribute over time—threatens this delicate Faustian deal with the thermonuclear devil.
If the latest report is even partially accurate, the US and the world face one of the most complex and volatile moments in human history. We always held the keys to own destruction; war, forced starvation, tribalism. Each had the potential to wipe out humans.
But those things took time.
What we’ve done is reduced the time necessary to bring about our own obliteration down to the mere opening of a briefcase, the turning of a few keys, and a short countdown to Armageddon. Who do you want to sit in the position to work to prevent such a future?
On our current track, we are moving from M.A.D to G.O.D. Mutually Assured Destruction to Guaranteeing Our Destruction.
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Finding a way to a healthier, happier life by understanding and managing our “Forbidden Emotions.”
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